We are exploring the development of a modeling tool that will benefit national missions in nuclear forensics and test ban treaty enforcement by improving radiological plume predictions. In particular, we are developing statistical methods to generate an optimal atmospheric-model ensemble design to capture the key sources of meteorological uncertainty and generate more accurate nuclear fallout predictions.
Pallotta, G., et al. 2018. "Improving Predictions of Radiological Surface Contamination Uncertainty via an Ensemble of Simulations." Data Science Institute Workshop, Livermore, CA, August 2018. LLNL-PRES-754902.