Climate Resilience for National Security

Executive Summary

We will advance climate science by using machine learning to better predict extreme-weather threats to critical infrastructure, and by developing a decision analysis capability for prioritizing investments aimed at improving infrastructure resilience. Integrating climate science with decision science will produce improved climate resilience strategies for advancing national security.

Publications, Presentations, and Patents

Gemma Anderson, "Uncertainties in data-driven climate projections" (Presentation, Conference on Data Analysis (CoDA), Santa Fe, NM, March 2023).

Philip Cameron-Smith, “Climate Impacts on California Infrastructure: The Plan for our LDRD Strategic Initiative” (PowerPoint Presentation, LLNL Climate & Weather Seminar Series, Livermore, CA, January 2022).

Philip Cameron-Smith and J. P. Watson, “Climate Impacts on California Infrastructure” (PowerPoint Presentation, Lawrence Livermore National Security (LLNS), LLC, Board of Governors Mission Committee, Livermore, CA, September 2022).

Philip Cameron-Smith, J. P. Watson, “Climate Impacts on California Infrastructure” (PowerPoint Presentation, Tri-Lab Climate Impacts Workshop, Albuquerque, NM, December 2022).

Philip Cameron-Smith, J. P. Watson,“Climate Resilience for National Security” (PowerPoint Presentation, LLNL Climate Research Seminars, California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, September 2023).

Ryan Greenough,“Distributed Capacity Expansion via ADMM” (Presentation, University of California, San Diego, CA, September 2023).

Pankaj Jha, J. Mirocha, A. Kochanski, and P. Cameron-Smith, “Wildfire Fuel Moisture Prediction Using Machine Learning Applied to Historic Atmospheric Data” (Presentation, American Meteorological Society 103rd Annual Meeting, Denver, CO, January 2023).

Rehenuma Lazin, G. Pallotta Goldhahn, C. Bonfils,“Climate Impacts on River Flows in California” (PowerPoint Presentation, LLNL Climate Research Seminars at the California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, September 2023).

Jeffrey Mirocha, and P. Jha, “Managing a Fiery Future: An Overview of Fire Research at LLNL” (PowerPoint Presentation, LLNL Climate Research Seminars at the California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, September 2023).

Molina, Maria J., T. O’Brien, G. Anderson, M. Ashfaq, K. Bennett, W. Collins, K. Dagon, J. Restrepo, and P. Ullrich. "A Review of Recent and Emerging Machine Learning Applications for Climate Variability and Weather Phenomena." Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 2, 220086 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1175/AIES-D-22-0086.1

Minda Monteagudo, S. Po-Chedley, J.-P. Watson, “Population and Temperature Impacts on Electricity Demand in California” (Presentation, Innovations in Climate Resilience Conference, Columbus, OH, March 2023).

Amelia Musselman, J.-P. Watson, and T. Valencia Zuluaga,“Climate-Resilient Power System Expansion Planning” (Presentation, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences Annual Meeting, Indianapolis, IN, October 17, 2022).

Amelia Musselman, T. Valencia Zuluaga, and J.-P. Watson,“Power System Expansion Planning for California Under Variable Climate Projections” (Presentation, XVI International Conference on Stochastic Programming, Davis, CA, July 2023).

Tibebe Tigabu, A. Visser, T. Kadir, S. Abudu, P. Cameron-Smith, and H. E. Dahlke, “Investigating the Hydrologic Responses to Climate Change: The case of the Feather River Watershed in California” (Presentation, American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting, Chicago, IL, December 2022).

Tibebe Tigabu, A. Visser, T. Kadir, S. Abudu, P. Cameron-Smith, and H. E. Dahlke, “Parametrization of the SWAT+ Model for Managed Streamflow Simulation: A Case Study of the Feather River Watershed in California, United States” (Presentation, 2023 International SWAT Conference, Aarhus, Denmark, June 2023).

Tibebe B. Tigabu, A. Visser, T. Kadir, S. Abudu, P. Cameron-Smith, H. E. Dahlke,“Climate and land use change impacts on the hydrology of Feather River Watershed, California, United States” (PowerPoint Presentation, LLNL Climate Research Seminars at the California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, September 2023).

Ate Visser, J. Moran, E. Grande, “Climate Impacts on Groundwater Recharge and Quality” (PowerPoint Presentation, LLNL Climate Research Seminars at the California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, September 2023).

Ate Visser, “Climate Impacts on California Water Resources” (Presentation, Tri-Labs Climate Security Workshop, Albuquerque, NM, December 2022).

Valencia Zuluaga, Tomas, A. Musselman, J.-P. Watson, “The Value of Distributed Resources in Climate-Resilient Power System Expansion Planning” (Presentation, Innovations in Climate Resilience Conference, Columbus, OH, March 2023).

Valencia Zuluaga, Tomas, A. Musselman, and J.-P. Watson, “A Stochastic Model for Climate-Resilient Power System Expansion Incorporating Distributed Energy Resources” (Presentation, XVI International Conference on Stochastic Programming, Davis, CA, July 2023).

Jean-Paul Watson, “Data Challenges and Applications for Climate-Informed Capacity Expansion” (Presentation, Electric Power Research Institute Climate READi Workshop: Exploring the Impacts of Extreme Weather and Climate Change on the Power System, September 2023).